Azerbaijan, Armenia reject talks as Karabakh conflict widens UN Security Council expresses concern about the clashes, as Guterres calls for halt in fighting. Despite the developments on the ground, earlier international decisions, resolutions and stances of different parties to the conflict, the future of the Nagorno-Karabakh region remains unclear. (Alex Mcbride/Getty Images) Reports say nearly 500 people, including more than 60 civilians, have been killed in renewed fighting which escalated last month. On September 28,2020 fighting intensified between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory which is under Armenian occupation since last 30 years. Specifically, that the conflict should be ended in order to prevent interruptions in the supply of oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea. So far, Moscow has managed to prevent expansion of the conflict from the Caucasus and its escalation into a broader war, which would have unforeseeable and serious consequences. The Azerbaijani people (Azeri) belong to the Turkish group of people of Islamic religion, despite the differences in the Medhhab doctrines (religious school of thought). Leer en español. In their respective press releases, each side asserts they “destroyed” somewhere between 130 (Armenian) and 137 (Azerbaijani) armored vehicles in just the first 10 days of the current conflict. Enlarge … It is also one of the key components of the Russia-Armenia relations. Thecurrent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia proves that war, which had been waged over the past years, is not just sectarian, even if the current conflict has ethnic dimensions. Continuation of the war would harm Russian interests and would create a window for a possible international intervention in its geostrategic neighborhood. By As for the US position in the conflict, the US is neutral and trying to resolve the conflict between the two countries. Analysts believe that the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region is a kind of a “time bomb”,which will not explode as long as Armenia is a military ally of Russia. Although the new Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is undoubtedly of pro-Western orientation, Armenia has no alternative to the alliance with Russia because of the vicinity of its historical adversaries of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict. In November 2018, the offices of these companies were raided for tax evasion, as a result of what Russia threatened to suspend railway operations and withdraw its companies from Armenia. The dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh has run hot and cold since the 1994 ceasefire -- one of several "frozen conflicts" that blight the post-Soviet world. This undoubtedly weakens the negotiating position of Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, even in the future political-diplomatic fight for autonomy within the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2020 Azerbaijan –Armenia conflict: Historical conflict or conflict with geostrategic dimensions T he strong conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in the autonomous Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh, which is under the control of Armenia, was renewed recently. Armenia and Armenian diaspora will probably undertake efforts to regain the lost territories. MOSCOW — A simmering, decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh … The July 2020 Armenian–Azerbaijani clashes began on 12 July 2020 between the Armenian Armed Forces and Azerbaijani Armed Forces. In general, Azerbaijan did not seek allies on the West at the cost of its relations with Russia, but did just the opposite- it respected Russian interests in the region. 2. Hence, the victory of Azerbaijan can encourage this minority in Iran to start expressing political stances related to self-determination, or maybe even request separation from Iran and annexation to Azerbaijan. It seems that Armenia was caught by surprise bearing in mind its assertive rhetoric against the Azerbaijan in the previous years. We bring the most interesting excerpts from a comprehensive analysis titled “2020 Azerbaijan –Armenia conflict: Historical conflict or conflict with geostrategic dimensions”. On 8 June 2020, he appointed Argishti Kyaramyan (a 29-year-old with no previous experience in the security sector) as the Director of the National Security Agency, describing it as a step aimed to put security forces under civilian control. 1031. The stance of the European Union and the US is the same. part of it. [4] ODKB/CSTO is an organization for collective security and cooperation established in 2002 as a military alliance of countries in the post-Soviet area including Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kirgizstan and Tajikistan. In fact, the official Paris has no wish to wage a battle in the region that does not belong neither to Armenia nor its geostrategic sphere (and Turkey would not allow that, nor would Russia). In May 2020, Pashinyan suddenly removed the leadership of the Armenian security service, specifically the chief of the police and the chief of the general staff. [2] TheBishkek Protocol is a provisional ceasefire agreement, signed by the representatives of Armenia (Parliament Speaker Babken Ararktsian), the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (Parliament Speaker Karen Baburyan), Azerbaijan (First Deputy Parliament Speaker Afiyaddin Jalilov) and Russia's representative to the OSCE Minsk Group Vladimir Kazimirov on May 5, 1994 in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.https://peacemaker.un.org/armeniaazerbaijan-bishkekprotocol94 . Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did not want cameras to document this “humiliating” moment in the history of Armenia - the signing of the peace agreement. Iran sided with the Christian Armenia, despite the existence of cultural, ethnic and religious connections between Teheran and Baku, where more than a third of Iranians are Azerbaijanis in the Western Azerbaijan, province of Iran, and majority of Azerbaijanis are Shia, like Persians in Iran. In fact, Russia does not want the crisis to get internationalized. Russia and Turkey should repeat their mediatory missions using the model of their cooperation in Syria, where Turkey has sided with the opposition, while Russia offers military and political support to the government in Damascus. Why you should care about conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russian border guards, together with their Armenian counterparts guard the Armenian border with Turkey and Iran. International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1]from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses developments in the Middle East, the Balkans and the world. part of it. International Institute can be transmitted and published by all media and individuals on Clashes erupt periodically in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and the latest crisis has raised fears of an all-out war. Brenda Shaffer. Despite the signing of the Bishkek Treaty in 1994, which ended the war, with mediation of the Minsk Group[2], led by France, United States and Russia, the conflicts did not cease. International Institute can be transmitted and published by all media and individuals on With the emergence of signs of collapse of the communist rule of the USSR, people’s representatives in the parliaments in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh decided in 1988 to unite the region with Armenia. However, just the opposite is happening in practice. In Armenia, in the vicinity of the city of Gyumri, there is a Russian military base no. The defeat of Armenia will deepen its dependence on Russia. Yerevan begun the war with aggressive rhetoric, which was later silenced. Russia, from its side, wants to relax the tensions between the two countries with which it has had special relations ever since the period of the Soviet Union and called on them to return to the negotiating table the sooner the better. Foreign policy implies fine balancing of relations and cooperation. The region with predominantly Armenian population was given autonomy in the Soviet period (1923) but within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. United Nations published this video item, entitled “Azerbaijan/Armenia conflict & other topics – Daily Briefing (14 October 2020)” – below is their description. In the context of its further expansion to Central Asia, Middle East and the Mediterranean region, the victory of Azerbaijan is in favor of Turkey. In fact, it has not closed Russian schools, it developed trade, economic and military relations with Russia, etc. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia have … With the cease fire agreement Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn the red lines in the Caucasus for all, including his Turkish “partner.” Azerbaijan did not, just as Armenia was not fully defeated. October 14, 20205:31 PM ET. In the future Turkey will strengthen its influence in Azerbaijan (Turkey has already obtained consent of Azerbaijan to establish its military base on the Azerbaijan territory), and simultaneously secure transport of energy from Azerbaijan and Central Asia to Turkey, and then Europe. Azerbaijan refused such an idea and abolished the autonomy that the region had enjoyed and subsequently deployed its military forces, which led to a breakout of war that lasted from 1992 to 1994 and caused the loss of this region together with seven neighboring regions, which comprise about one fifth of the territory of Azerbaijan, as well as forcible displacement of around million Azerbaijani citizens from the occupied areas to other parts of Azerbaijan. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, stop at their positions. 1. Be first to receive our research, opinions and events. Azerbaijan – Armenia Conflict Continues With Azerbaijan Claiming Several Villages. Namely, according to this formula Turkey would have been included in the negotiations as the fourth partner. This issue had a direct impact on the fights in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, because the Armenians had completely failed in the area of intelligence operations. 102, which is one of the most important facilities of Russian military and geopolitical presence in the Caucasus. With the relative relaxation of the situation in Syria and Libya achieved after the US and German had put pressure on Libyan parties, it is to be expected that the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (AKP) will, once again, this time in the Caucasus region, be faced with his “friend and adversary” – Russian President Vladimir Putin. Teheran hopes to weaken Azerbaijan, so that the Azerbaijani minority in Iran would not request more rights or show aspirations for unification with their homeland. As Russia and Armenia are allies, that is two strategic partners connected through numerous agreements in the defense area, it would be expected that Russia should take into account the geopolitical and strategic interests of its ally of Armenia. Vazken Khatchig Davidian. Other participants in the work of the group include: Belarus, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Turkey, as well as the directly interested states of Armenia and Azerbaijan. [1] IFIMES - IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, Slovenia,has a special consultative status with the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC)/UN since 2018. Hence, the conclusion was that Russians have sold an illusion to Armenia after they had promised them support, which never came. On the internal political level this means implementation of reform processes directed towards development of democracy, rule of law and democratic relations- that is embracing of the European system of values. As soon as he came to power in 2018, he recalled the ODKB/CSTO Secretary General, the Armenian Yuri Khachaturov, who was arrested and tried for the charges that during the opposition protests of 1 and 2 March 2018 as the commander of the Yerevan garrison he had “subverted public order” without informing member countries, and particularly Russia, and without previous announcement. Although Prime Minister Pashinyan had announced that he wants to embrace a “multidirectional” foreign policy, he made an array of fatal mistakes, which led to the defeat of Armenia. Specifically, it wants to get concession in the civil war in Syria and Libya, as well as the crisis with Greece over exploitation of natural gas in Eastern Mediterranean, in which Ankara and Moscow are on opposite sides. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg shakes … The conflict did not develop as the Armenian leaders had envisaged. 30 Sep 2020 Just as in Georgia and Ukraine in the recent history, the new rulers of Armenia wanted to distance themselves from the previous policy of remaining in Russia’s interest zone (as Armenia’s territory has been part of Russia’s interest zone for almost a century), and decided to move closer to the West and the NATO alliance. 5 October 2020. However, if an ally decides that it has other allies as well, particularly on the West, then it should expect a ​​harsh response from the Russian side and be ready to bear the consequences. At the same time, the opposition forces in Yerevan protest against the ceasefire and call on Prime MinisterNikol Pashinyan, as the signatory to the agreement, to resign. Namely, the conflict took place on the territory of Azerbaijan and not within the borders of Armenia. The lesson from the recent war between Armenia and Azerbaijan can also serve as a “moral” for certain politicians in the Balkans, who cultivate a romanticist relation (based on ethnicity and Orthodox religion) towards Russia although this war has shown that Russia is led firstly and foremostly by its own national interests. Armenia, which controls the disputed region, is satisfied with the status quo, while Azerbaijan, which is rich in energy resources and whose defense expenditures exceed the entire Armenian budget, now threatens to use military force to regain control over the lost region. A complete ceasefire and all hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone are announced as of 00:00 Moscow time on November 10, 2020. Armenia and Azerbaijan both have announced that the fighting over … Armenia is an important ally of Russia on the territory of the former Soviet Union. Scott Neuman. Not only that Armenia lost the Azerbaijani territories that it had occupied in 1993, but the Azerbaijani forces have deeply penetrated the autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh and on 8 November 2020 took control of the strategically important city of Shusha, which is only 6.4 km by air from Stepanakert, the capital of the breakaway region. On the occasion of the signing of the Russia-brokered peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan to end military conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh enclave, IFIMES made an analysis of the current developments. Ljubljana/Baku/Washington, 2 October 2020. But Ankara’s role in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict is bringing matters to a head. In the recent history the Serbs in Croatia were in a similar position when they refused the proposed Z-4[3] plan. Kaveh Afrasiabi, Nader Entessar. Although Armenia is still a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (ODKB/CSTO)[4], established in 1992, with headquarters in Moscow, Prime Minister Pashinyan had decided to reduce the level of intelligence cooperation and exchange of security/intelligence data with CSTO member countries, including Russia. This conflict is much more than a conflict between just two countries over a border strip areas, as it is a fight among a group of countries over control of the entire region of Caucasus. However, the defeat was expected if we take into account the development and potential of Armenian authorities after the 2018 revolution, known as the “Velvet revolution” (headed by a group of civil society organizations), which had not been taken into account in the development of the new geopolitical equation on the Caucasus. Since the outbreak of the last Armenia- Azerbaijan war on 27 September 2020, Armenia has suffered major military losses from the Azerbaijani forces, which were backed by substantial Turkish military support. In the opinion of analysts in the International Institute IFIMES, although the last ceasefire, that is the peace agreement, is respected for the time being, the circumstances indicate that it is rather unlikely that the agreement will remain in place and serve as a basis for some peace talks among belligerent parties. Although Iran had preserved its neutrality with respect to the war between the two countries, the defeat of Armenia, which is the closest ally of Teheran in the region, will definitely weaken Iran's influence in the region at the time when Turkish influence is growing. The victory of Azerbaijan and the defeat of Armenia is bad news for Iran, the reason being that one fourth of the population of the Islamic Republic of Iran are ethnic Azeris. In the opinion of the analysts of the IFIMES international institute, when it comes to military balance of forces, Azerbaijan has leverage over Armenia, because it has developed its military forces and procured modern weapons from Russia, Turkey and Israel- capitalizing on high oil prices over the past two decades. Ljubljana/Baku/Washington/Moscow/Brussels, 3 December 2020. Inthis conflict Israel has sided with Azerbaijan. According to the Agreement, the “Armenian” military units have to leave the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Initial clashes occurred near Movses in Tavush Province of Armenia, and Ağdam in Tovuz District of Azerbaijan at the Armenian–Azerbaijani state border. Iran has strong economic relations with Armenia, based primarily on import of oil, natural gas and electric energy from Iran. However, careful reading of the agreement and its context reveals that Azerbaijan has achieved much more than it expected, while Armenia has lost in the war what it could have avoided- had it agreed to negotiations on the basis of four resolutions of the UN Security Council (822/1993, 853/1993, 874/1993, 884/1993) prior to the outbreak of the conflict. 10693 from 2008.godine, reaffirm territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and call on Armenia to withdraw from the “occupied Azerbaijani territories”, they do not explicitly and categorically speak about the future of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. One also gets the impression that the European Union as well did not play its role, particularly bearing in mind that this all was happening in its neighborhood. It was clearly proven that an intensive pro-western foreign policy orientation must not be equated with an intensive anti-Russia campaign. Although Turkey celebrated the victory of Azerbaijan, the official Ankara did not manage to achieve its goal and have the “2 + 2” formula applied to the negotiations. Pashinyan then conducted massive demobilization of officers who had been trained in Moscow, as a result of what the Armenian military lost experienced personnel that had good relations with Russia. Specifically, Turkey has a Sunni and Azerbaijan a Shia majority. Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict. As French Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian said, France has remained an “honest mediator” during the conflict. Namely, their sole goal and vision was to come to power, which is what has also happened in Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, just like in Armenia. At the same time, this is also the best way to resist the Russian influence. Ambiguous interpretations of this item could activate the conflict at any time. [1] IFIMES – The Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies from Ljubljana, Slovenia has a special consultative status within the Economic and Social Council /UN, New York since 2018. The government introduced restrictions on Russian companies doing business in Armenia, the most important ones being the South Caucasus Railway[5] and the Armenian energy company connected with the Gazprom Company. Analysts downplay the possibility of launching of a major military campaign taking into account that Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organizations (ODKB/CSTO)[3], which was established by Russia in 2002. For other information contact: ifimes@ifimes.org, Printed texts, analyses, studies, researches, photographies, phono and video This is a result that Moscow deems satisfactory and an own goal scored by Armenia in favor of Russia. How 2018 “Velvet revolution” led to defeat of Armenia? While the aforementioned resolutions of the UN Security Council related to the conflict and the resolution of the UN General Assembly no. Tuesday, October 6, 2020 Saturday, October 24, 2020 Sindhuvox Desk Armenia, asia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, war. Now a balance has been established in the Caucasus and Russia has returned to the region, which was not under its control since the collapse of the USSR. Three-day event comes as calls grow for PM to resign over handling of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Published: 19 Dec 2020 Armenia begins period of mourning for victims of Azerbaijan clashes The question being imposed is why is this old conflict, which was at a standstill (frozen conflict) after the serious fights between 1988 and 1994 and in April 2016, being renewed now. Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Poses Threat to European Energy Security. Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict – The attack of the Armenian army with heavy weapons on the Tovuz Rayon of Azerbaijan suddenly changed the world agenda and caused the regional war scenarios to be brought to the agenda once again. Russia has very good relations with Azerbaijan, which in its recent history and after the fall of the Soviet Union did not express any negative experiences or stances with respect to its period under the Soviet rule. Russia was concentrated on the problem of development of closer relations between Georgia and the West, which is why the Azerbaijan-Armenia war had “surprised” it. Specifically, a major defeat on the front and disappointment in their “friend” (Russia), from which they expected help when they need it the most. Jan. 29, 2021. Furthermore, the presence of the Russian military in the base in Armenia has been extended until 2044. Iran and Azerbaijan share a border that is more than 760 kilometers long and a part of the Caspian Sea, which is rich in oil and natural gas. One of the main reasons for the current escalation of the conflict is the lack of active international mediation between the two sides. However, that was not sufficient for Armenia. Photo: Sergei Bobylev/Tass/PA Images. [2] OSCE Minsk Group is a multilateral group within the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. For other information contact: ifimes@ifimes.org, Printed texts, analyses, studies, researches, photographies, phono and video Many important questions remain unanswered. 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Furthermore, it has transpired once again that counting and relying on the so-called traditional friends has no practical weight, which in this case was demonstrated through the very passive stance of France and the role of Russia that was below the expectations. However, this is where the Russians had drawn a red line for Turkish ambitions. Analysts believe that Azerbaijan is the new point of conflict and rivalry between Iran and Israel, because Israel already has marked presence in the vicinity of Iranian border.